Oktoberfest

Qf1
1 383 Erica Hartmann @ Strike Witches 2
2 255 Astarotte Ygvar (Lotte) @ Astarotte no Omocha!

***

Well, we’re seeing shades of Minamoto Chikaru here in Strike Witches’ Erica Hartmann. What a sterling performance. Living on the edge. Four votes away from being booted out in Round Two. Three in Round Three. And she comes back here with her most impressive win yet. Against Lotte, who vanquished stronger foes before. It’s hard to make sense out of this, but that’s why carry out the matches. This is how Saimoe just goes, you never know how it’s gonna be until you see the “一致 ” in the Saimoe Management thread. A surprising match indeed. One, because Erica won. And two, because she won with ease, leading all the way.

Looking at the overview chart, I can’t recall any character in recent memory who has finished unimpressively (i.e. not first, second or third in her prelim group, and Erica finished fourth in a weak group), and reach this far, except yes, the fabled Minamoto Chikaru (Louise did finish fifth in her prelims in 2009, but she did Top 8 before that in 2007). So Erica fans out there, savor it, this might be the last victory for her, but what a sweet ride it was. Also one has to ask, where did the 200-something votes of Lotte in the previous round go?

Anyway, let’s move on to the next round, and I can’t state enough how important this will be. I’ve said my piece about this match in the preview, and won’t bother repeating myself, but the bottom line is: this will be the second most-voted match of the year (second to the infamous Mikoto-Homura match), or it might even exceed that. If Mikoto-Homura set the tone to start the tourney, then this match Kyouko-Kuroneko match will be the turning point.

EDIT: It’s also amazing how far Erica has come: from a girl that finished 108th in her Prelim Group (Group Eleven, she missed the prelim 2 cut), garnered only 7 votes way back in 2007 to someone who has now has a Top Four finish under her belt. Really proud.

-LUN HIJACK-

Well, that was a shocking result. Erica continues to defy the odds again, but like many other Saimoe followers, I was surprised that Lotte could garner only 255 votes when she’s capable of 400+. Some might argue that Lotte’s count was boosted by strategic voters in the previous round, but she managed 400+ in her match against Kurisu too which didn’t have much importance at all in terms of tactical voting. Opinions or conspiracy theories anyone?

In any case, well done to Erica for making it this far. A great feat accomplished by the Strike Witches, and it’s always pleasing to see an underdog overcoming the odds.

So today’s the biggie: Kyouko vs Kuroneko, a crucial match-up that will probably determine the fate of this year’s tournament. Kuroneko’s the strongest non-Madoka girl left and probably the only one who can stop a Puella Magi from winning the crown now, considering the fact that Ika Musume is a far more uphill task of having to overcome two of the strongest Puella Magis to reach the finals.

The Madoka faction will be out in full force today as they seek to make the finals an all-PMMM affair. Kuroneko, on the other hand, will receive backing from those who wish to see competition right up till the end. Both competitors can turn up the heat when required – Kuroneko broke into the 400+ vote territory in the previous round (against Houki), while Kyouko garnered 500+ votes in a tricky encounter against Kokoro during the third round.

It’ll be a close one, but I think Kyouko will nick the win over here. However, if Kuroneko’s able to beat Kyouko by a decent margin, she’ll be in pole position to win the tourney this year.

***

MST Results for the past three days:

10-25: R2, Day 3
A2-2
1 96 votes Kashiwaba Tomoe@Rozen Maiden
2 74 votes Ikeda Kana@Saki
3 33 votes Mizunashi Akari@Aqua / Aria

C2-1
1 118 votes Suiseiseki@Rozen Maiden
2 60 votes Ryuuguu Rena@Higurashi no Naku Koro ni series
3 23 votes Yuuki Mikan@To LOVE-Ru

F2-1
1 95 votes Yamamoto Nanako@Hanamaru Youchien
2 57 votes Hasegawa Chisame@Mahou Sensei Negima! series
3 32 votes Kamiya Kaoru@Rurouni Kenshin

R2, Day 4

B2-2
1 89 votes Nagatsuki@Sanae Shinryaku! Ika Musume
2 73 votes Tomoe Mami@Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica series
3 14 votes Senoo Kaori@Saki

D2-2
1 79 votes Haqua du Lot Herminium@Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai
2 70 votes Sakura Kyouko@Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica series
3 25 votes Shihouin Yoruichi@Bleach

G2-2
1 85 votes Kinomoto Sakura@Cardcaptor Sakura
2 39 votes Sonozaki Shion@Higurashi no Naku Koro ni series
3 38 votes Kirishima Eriko (Elly)@Megami Ibunroku Persona

10-28: R2, Day 5

C2-2
1 97 votes Ika Musume Shinryaku!@Ika Musume
2 36 votes Haibara Ai (Miyano Shiho)@Meitantei Conan series
3 22 votes Miyazaki Miyako@Bamboo Blade series

E2-2
1 62 votes Saginomiya Isumi@Hayate no Gotoku!
2 50 votes Sonozaki Mion@Higurashi no Naku Koro ni series
3 29 votes Kondou Mayuka@Onii-chan no Koto nanka Zenzen Suki Janain Dakara ne!!

H2-2
1 83 votes Kataoka Yuuki@Saki
2 36 votes Kurimi Rina@Pretty Face
3 28 votes Koga Itami@Medaka Box

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9 thoughts on “Oktoberfest

  1. Kaosu October 28, 2011 / 2:40 pm

    -.- that was unexpected. Didn’t follow the match but going by The Guy’s comment in fantasy, were there alot of fake votes for Lotte?

    • LuniazKun October 28, 2011 / 2:52 pm

      Yup, especially during the initial stages of the match.

  2. The Guy October 28, 2011 / 6:04 pm

    DAMN YOU ALL.

  3. Xellos-_^ October 28, 2011 / 6:17 pm

    Chikaru face face more powerful opponents

    • frustra October 28, 2011 / 9:58 pm

      true, but it’s hard to deny that this accomplishment by Erica is still amazing, and unthinkable back then in august when the main draw was announced

  4. ppaaccoojrf October 28, 2011 / 6:21 pm

    I’m so happy for Erica. I don’t care who wins the tournament anymore (okay, I do, but I’m not as hung up over it anymore) because I’m busy savoring this win. Specially when Lotte took out my waifu and biribiri.

    I don’t care if she loses to whoever it is in the semis, this is the best day ever. Words cannot describe how much I’m enjoying this.

    • frustra October 28, 2011 / 10:25 pm

      good for you. from 2007 “jobber” (see EDIT above) to a 2011 semifinalist. one of the most amazing feats in Saimoe, in my opinion.

  5. Martial1562 October 28, 2011 / 9:26 pm

    Oddly enough this doesn’t surprise me and for a very silly reason. In Madoka, magical girls defeat witches…hmmm….Erica is a strike witch….*facepalm*

    Watch Kyouko win with ease JUST so see can face a *witch* and defeat her.

    Sounds REALLY fishy I know but that seems to be the course of things this year. This scenario has happened twice already (Kyouko defeating Charlotte Yeager in round 2 and Mami defeating Yoshika Miyafuji in round 3) so gee why not a third time Madoka lovers! (loling SO HARD right now at this stupid state of affairs)

    • LuniazKun October 29, 2011 / 6:38 am

      That’s a possible scenario, but it still doesn’t explain how Lotte’s vote count plummeted in this match-up.

      Perhaps we might have been overestimating Lotte’s strength all along. The votes for her in the last round were most likely boosted by tactical voting. As for Round 3, her match was on the same day as Tenshi’s, and perhaps the Tenshi-Lotte vote combination was significantly more than other combination of votes. Maybe someone can do some data mining to find out if that is indeed the case.

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