Prohibition

manga saimoe, previews, results

***

G2-1
1 317 Index @ To Aru Majutsu no Index II
2 284 Kousaka Kirino @ Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai
3 134 Eila Ilmatar Juutilainen @ Strike Witches 2
H2-1
1 330 Shinonono Houki @ Infinite Stratos
2 219 Nakagawa Kanon @ Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai series
3 117 Agnese Sanctis @ To Aru Majutsu no Index II

***

Must be the SR Cover jinx.

With this loss, it’s all but confirmed that Madoka Magica has a stranglehold in this tournament now. The “resistance” is down to Mikoto-Ika-Victorique-Kuroneko and to a small extent Char-Lotte-Aria-Tenshi.

Obviously, I thought Kirino could overcome the hate votes (MadoMagi tactical votes and farfetched Kuroneko votes) coming her way, and given Index’s tendency to lose in huge matches, I was convinced this was a cinch for the OreImo ace. Saimoe 2011 is bizarro world indeed (or let’s say Madoka’s world), as Index finally wins a match where she is the definite underdog.

The deficit was less than 40, but Index had complete control all the way. 284 votes won’t cut it in a huge match like this, and this greatly changes the complexion of the block and the tournament as a whole. Suddenly Index has a legitimate chance to Top 16. Quite the turn of events. Surprising also that Eila didn’t get completely bus’d.

As for Block H, my sudden switch to Kanon did not bear fruit in the end (though I did note that Saimoe humor would have Houki winning) and Houki breaks Infi’s slump while at the same time halting KamiNomi’s momentum by breaking out of the gates quickly and never looking back.

Quite a day in Saimoe, and there’s even more to come.

I fancy Haruka’s chances against Yui even though in the previous series fight Tenshi completely sonic’d the heck out of Tsukasa. Amagami has her ace here now though, while Yui is AB’s second strongest bet. Will be a fun match and odds are high it will be close.

Haruna vs. Aria on the other hand is a blowout in the making. Of course, if you asked me this before the season began I would have said this would be very close, but it has turned out very differently. KoreZom did not meet my expectations for them, while Aria did so far, as highlighted by her coming close against Kyouko in the prelims, and her teammate Shirayuki scoring huge Main Draw wins. This should be easy for Aria, she’s just gonna get this out of the way now, warming up to that collision course match against Kuroneko, whose position in Block H is now under scrutiny.

I hope that today’s MST results is not an inauspicious sign for Haruka, as she lost a heartbreaker against perennial contending series Nononono.

http://manga.x0.to/01/saimoe/src/up1300.txt

G07
1 47 Kourogi Mikage@Nononono
2 46 Morishima L. Haruka@Amagami series
3 20 Nagato Yuki@Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu series
4 14 Aoki Yuriko@Bakuman.
H07
1 41 Yamada Aoi@Working!!
2 31 Tendou Akane@Ranma ½
3 29 Tsubaki Youko@Nazo no Kanojo X
4 19 Juju Koo Shunamul@Mahoujin Guru Guru series
A08
1 42 Kukuri@Mahoujin Guru Guru series
2 36 Karasawa Chiyuri@Super Maid Chirumi-san
3 28 Nausicaä@Kaze no Tani no Nausicaä

-LUN HIJACK-

Heh, prior to the Index-Kirino match, frustra asked me if I’d predict an Index win being the troll I am (though I eventually didn’t), and I cited Murphy’s Law- anything that can go wrong will go wrong. And things sure went wrong for Kirino, as she becomes the biggest casualty of Round 2 thus far.

So, what happened? For one, low vote totals. Kirino is capable of attracting more votes than she did in this match-up – it seems that she suffered the same syndrome that the IS girls are undergoing too.

To be honest, the snipe always looked to be likely too, especially with the presence of a Puella Magi in this block. It was just a matter of when it will occur – I only realized today that if both Kirino and Kuroneko were to make it to Round 3, they would be having their match-ups on the same day, which will boost each other’s total. Hence, strategic voters against Kirino have probably factored this into account, thus choosing to eliminate her now rather than later.

So that’s it for Kirino’s run. As for the other match-up, Houki ends IS’ losing streak with a convincing win over Kanon, but she’ll need to sustain this form in order to take down Aria in Round 3.

Moving on to today’s match-ups. Well, Aria should have no difficulty here. The main highlight would then be Haruka’s match-up against Yui. The ace of the Amagami girls is also their last stand here, and stats-wise, Haruka has had it better than Yui personally. However, it’s worthy to note that Haruka’s vote total in R1 were boosted by the presence of Kyouko, while Yui did well to recover from her prelim slump. In terms of faction power, well it’s hard to say. Removing Tenshi from the equation, it would appear that Amagami has the better record.

A tough one, but I guess I’ll go for Yui on this one.

Picks: Haruka, Haruna
Prediction: Yui, Aria

7 thoughts on “Prohibition

  1. Another coincidence is that they both (Homura and Kirino) were defeated by Raildex faction. But come on! You shouldn’t blame everything on Madoka faction. Kirino was actually underperform here or she was overestimated. Her votes didn’t even reach 300. Raildex faction is not that weak to not be able to achieve 300+ votes by itself. The fault here was Ore Imo faction which couldn’t gather more votes to beat Index. If Kirino had true potential to be group winner or even Saimoe winner then 300+ votes should be a piece of cake.

    1. Agreed. And even if you want to go ahead and call these completely assassinations, you still have to factor that Raildex characters are the ones being used for these. They’re no pushovers, that’s why they get chosen, but they tend to get underestimated, and that’s why they work.

      1. I don’t know about frustra, but I’m not blaming it entirely on the Madoka faction. I do acknowledge the fact that support for Kirino hasn’t been good enough. In fact, it’s not just in this match-up either. Comparing Kirino’s prelim+R1 tally with Kuroneko’s + the standard of opponents that they encountered, you’ll notice that support for Kiririn has been less than that for Kuroneko.

        So like I noted in my post, it was just a matter of when it would happen. And Madoka faction, together with Index being a more solid choice than Yui/Haruka to combat Kirino, simply played the role of catalysts yesterday.

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