Inkredible

previews, results

C2-2
1 207 Hercule Barton (Elly) @ Tantei Opera Milky Holmes [45.10%]
2 146 Laura Bodewig @ Infinite Stratos [31.81%]
3 106 Eclair Martinozzi @ Dog Days [23.09%]

D2-2
1 292 Ika Musume @ Shinryaku! Ika Musume [60.71%]
2 107 Kotegawa Yui @ Motto To Love-Ru [22.25%]
3 82 Tougi Shiro @ Fortune Arterial: Akai Yakusoku [17.05%]

So Ika styled on the day before the second season of her show airs in Japan. Meanwhile, Elly recorded a convincing win, and it seems I got it spot on when I mentioned that Laura hasn’t been receiving as much support as the other IS girls. Still, I was expecting her to put up a close fight, but it didn’t turn out that way. Good performance by Milky Holmes so far, but sadly Nero and Elly will have to face two monsters in the form of Ika and Madoka in the next round. Tough luck.

So next up, two possibly intriguing matches. First up, Sanya vs Elsie (vs Hotori). It’s the battle between the top ace of Strike Witches and TWGOK. This is itself reflected in the Round 1 results, where both girls received the highest vote percentage for their respective series. So who has the better numbers here? According to prelim+R1 stats, it seems to be Elsie. So, how about by series?

(average vote/average vote percentage)
Winners only: Strike Witches 269 (48.98%) – 281 (49.90%) TWGOK
Overall: Strike Witches 235.1 (40.72%) – 209.875 (35.13%) TWGOK

Seems like the top characters of TWGOK are able to perform slightly better than that of the Witches, but in general, the Witches have a stronger faction power than TWGOK.

There will be some people who might argue that Elsie’s vote % is inflated thanks to easy match-ups, but hey, she is the real deal. Take a look at the day of Elsie’s R1 match-up. Notice the wide gap between Elsie and the other two winners, and to get 287 votes on a quiet match-day is actually a very good return.

As for Sanya, had it not been for the split with Lucchini, she would have garnered more votes in R1 too. But even if all of the votes for Lucchini were allocated to Sanya, a total of 312 votes isn’t that far from Elsie’s R1 total.

So crunch time for Elsie. Will she be able to prove her mettle here, or falter like Rin and Ryuushi did?

Next up, Isana vs Nao vs Last Order. Well, it’s evident that Last Order has the advantage in terms of faction power here. Isana, like Merry, has trouble attracting the numbers, so it’ll be a difficult challenge for her. How about Nao? She finished a distant 3rd in her prelim group, while her Round 1 vote count was inflated by the presence of Ika Musume. Individually, Last Order has had the better prelim+R1 stats. So yup, going for Last Order here.

Picks: Sanya, Isana
Prediction: Elsie, Last Order

frustra’s…
Picks: Sanya, Isana
Prediction: LC, Last Order

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