Channel Fireball

A-Channel’s Yuuko pulled off an unlikely upset over heralded veteran Shana, as the former overcame an early deficit and a late rally to deal the latter her first Anime Saimoe Tournament opening round loss in five attempts, as Day One of Block F, Round One concluded Wednesday. Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu’s Kirishima Shouko was a distant third in the three-way match.

Yuuno Arasihko (MM!) ensured that the K-On shutout was intact after she defeated Hirasawa Ui and Hakase (Nichijou).

Yuuki Mikan provided To-Love-Ru its second win after completely dominating Shukufuku no Campanella’s Salsa Tortilla, and Koihime Musou’s Touka.

***

F01
1 396 Yuuki Mikan @ Motto To Love-Ru
2 157 Salsa Tortilla @ Shukufuku no Campanella
3 120 Ryuubi Gentoku (Touka) @ Shin Koihime†Musou series
F05
1 354 Yuuno Arashiko @ MM!
2 301 Hirasawa Ui @ K-ON!!
3 95 Hakase @ Nichijou
F09
1 340 Yuuko @ A Channel
2 316 Shana @ Shakugan no Shana S
3 110 Kirishima Shouko @ Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu: Matsuri

***

And Yuuko does the unthinkable. Remarkable turn of events we saw here. I honestly didn’t see this coming. Even though there’s an obvious shift of voting preferences in 2ch now that foreign voting is virtually a non-factor, it’s still hard to fathom that Yuuko is capable of taking Shana on without a little help from her “friends”. Obviously, tactics was involved (feel free to speculate as to who, Madoka, Raildex, IS, you name it), nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine the flame haze, one of Saimoe’s most consistent icons to fall in the opening round. I predicted preseason that she won’t make it past the third round, but yeah, to lose in the first round? Against a mid-tier (in strength) opponent? Unbelievable.

Saimoe 2011 really reminds me of 2007 now, one of the most unpredictable, strategic/tactical driven-tournament out of all Saimoes. This time, we’ve got a lower amount of votes, adding to the element of unpredictability. And we have newcomers ruling instead of Rozen/Nanoha running the show.

If 2011 is set to be one of the most compelling Saimoe ever, this counts as one of the textbook example as to why.

So where does Shana’s upset rank in Saimoe history? I’d like to know what you guys think.

As for the rest of today’s results , they are standard fare compared to what we have just witnessed. Well, Hakase was a non-factor after all, and I was right initially, but yeah, K-On is set for a shutout this year. Mikan styled, but she gets a tough one next. Should be Mami on deck for her, and that will be a fun match the way things are unfolding right now.

46-17 in predictions after going 2-1, and 24-38-1 in picks (1 win, 1 loss, 1 abstain)

We have a good one today, let’s get on with it.

F02
Group 1 1st 207 37.98% Millhiore F. Biscotti @ Dog Days
Group 6 16th 109 13.75% Kasuga Kusunoki @ Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai series
Group 13 3rd 291 37.07% Nymph @ Sora no Otoshimono series

>It’s up there in the round’s most exciting matches. I have noted in my previous posts that Group One which Millhiore won was a group that had a lot of depth. Nymph finished third in a good group herself, so is this is going to be a standoff. Not to mention, both are aces. Nymph garnered more votes than Millhi, but the latter had a better percentage. I am leaning towards Millhi winning if I end up having to pick today. I guess this is the year of rookies after all, and that’s what Millhi is, an upstart for a group of underdogs.

SoraOto has been getting their key characters in, and for a returning series, I think they are pretty doing an excellent job of taking care of business. This is a tough one though. Ace versus ace. I’m still inclined to go with Millhiore. She’s not really the underdog here. I say they are even in strength. But 2ch’s penchant for supporting the newcomers ultimately tilts this close match in favor of Millhi.

Of course SoraOto will probably prove me wrong again for the third time. Will not shock me if ever.

F06
Group 1 16th 88 16.15% Miria Marigold Mackenzie @ Jewelpet Tinkle
Group 11 12th 114 17.70% Kongou Mitsuko @ To Aru Kagaku no Railgun OVA
Group 11 2nd 259 40.22% Miyafuji Yoshika @ Strike Witches 2

>Yoshika takes one for the witches.

It’s not that simple, but I think Yoshika will do just fine. Of course the main challenge will come from Miria following Akari falling short yet again. But the aces of Strike Witches have risen to the occasion when threatened, and Yoshika will prove us that.

F10
Group 1 17th 76 13.94% Asaka Hinata @ Jewelpet Sunshine
Group 14 8th 116 21.09% Kondou Mikoto @ Kämpfer für die Liebe
Group 1 3rd 200 36.70% Anjou Naruko (Anaru) @ AnoHana

>Hmm, a rare Jewelpet combo vote. Losses are more common though, as Anaru pushes through. Ick, I overlooked this one win for AnoHana so to fix my earlier remarks they’re gonna end up with actually three wins. Haw.

Jewelpets will try to make this interesting for Anaru, but yeah, Anaru will still come out on top.

Predictions: Millhi, Yoshika, Anaru
Picks: Millhi, Yoshika, Anaru

HA HA TIME FOR 3-0? I sure hope so.

Manga Saimoe, Prelim Two, Group Eleven:

Kanaria shows stuff of champions, hold off upstart Homura to win Group Eleven

Manga Saimoe also surprised me since I thought Kanaria’s best years have passed after she won it all in 2007. Turns out, she’s still capable of taking down new challengers like Homura and Madoka. With so much Rozen winning, again, I have a feeling it will backfire in the end. And they are set to win once again because…

Suigintou is the easy pick to win the penultimate Prelim Two match. Her main opposition will be Ika Musume’s Sanae and Chizuru, along with Nurarihyon’s Tsurara, but they don’t even come close to Suigintou’s power level.


===LUN HIJACK===

So Shana got sniped. Possible culprits? Looking at the same side of the block, certainly not Nano fans since Hakase didn’t perform well today. It could have been Nako or Cecilia fans – HanaIro has had strong backing while IS is one of the better performing series in the main round thus far. In any case, Shana was perceived as a huge threat, and with the last Shana season coming in just a few week’s time, supporters of other contenders felt that they had to take action early.

So moving on to the next day, the match of interest would be between Nymph and Millhiore. Both aces of their respective series in Saimoe, both did well in the prelims, so it could be a tight one. Looking at some stats, we have:

Best 3 Performers Total votes/Average vote % for
Prelims: Dog Days 579/32.39% vs SnO 707/33.24%
R1: Dog Days 724/40.95% vs SnO 774/47.57%

Comparing the total votes-to-average vote % ratio, Dog Days has performed slightly better than SnO in both prelims and Round 1 thus far. However, it’s worth noting the stats for Dog Days in the prelims were boosted by Ricotta being in a weak group, and for the main round, Ikaros has not featured but Yukikaze already has (both are 2nd in their series in terms of Saimoe popularity).

Being a flat-chested tsundere, Nymph should have a bit of a bonus here. Going with the angeloid on this one, but it most probably would be a close call. I’m gonna abstain in this match-up since I like both Milhi and Nymph.

Picks: Yoshika, Anaru
Prediction: Nymph, Yoshika, Anaru

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