Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Boku-tachi wa Mada Shiranai’s Honma (Menma) Meiko advanced to the Second Round of Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011, after defeating Amagami’s Tanamachi Kaoru and To Aru Majutsu no index’s Himegami Aisa in Block C’s Round One finale. Menma next faces A-Channel’s Run and Hoshizora he Kakaru Hashi’s Koumoto Madoka.
In other closing matches, Hercule (Elly) Barton scored another victory for Tantei Opera Milky Holmes, eliminating both Shinryaku! Ika Musume’s Aizawa Chizuru and Sora no Otoshimono’s Satsukitane Mikako. Elly is slated to go against Dog Days’ Eclair Martinozzi and Infinite Stratos’ Laura Bodewig in Round Two.
Lastly, MM’s Isurugi Mio handed Hanasaku Iroha’s first defeat as Wajima Tomoe and Sengoku Otome’s Imagawa Yoshimoto both lost. Mio will challenge Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica’s Kaname Madoka next, along with Astarotte no Omocha’s Ingrid.
1 178 Isurugi Mio @ MM!
2 107 Wajima Tomoe @ Hanasaku Iroha
3 91 Imagawa Yoshimoto @ Sengoku Otome: Momoiro Paradox
1 210 Hercule Barton (Elly) @ Tantei Opera Milky Holmes
2 109 Aizawa Chizuru @ Shinryaku! Ika Musume
3 69 Satsukitane Mikako @ Sora no Otoshimono series
1 194 Honma Meiko (Menma) @ Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Boku-tachi wa Mada Shiranai
2 150 Tanamachi Kaoru @ Amagami SS
3 62 Himegami Aisa @ To Aru Majutsu no Index II
Nothing really nerve-wracking about this set, it’s as much as straightforward as you can get the way things are shaping up, so good for the three that cruised through to Round Two.
Menma’s low numbers initially come to mind, and might be a cause for concern against Run next round, but that bridge shall be crossed when we get there. At least noitaminA has a win this year now.
Mio handily defeats Tomoe, a bit of a surprise, I thought it would be much closer, same with Elly.
That’s much ado about nothing anyway, let’s proceed to today’s anticipated match day. 3-0 predictions (35-13), 0-3 picks (15-33).
E for epic, amirite?
Group 2 2nd 248 44.21% Uiharu Kazari @ Raildex
Group 10 6th 209 25.33% Sakura Akari @ Jewelpet Tinkle
Group 9 6th 195 25.93% Mercelída Ygvar I @ Astarotte no Omocha!
>Akari is best known for giving Haramura Nodoka fits last year. Don’t be surprised if she does the same to Uiharu. In fact, it’s likely that Uiharu might be sacrificed to boost Saten’s chances better against Sayaka in Round Two. I won’t be surprised if that happens, but Madoka will likely do the same and increase the chances of a split. It’s a chess match, and with a push like that, the basic tenets of Saimoe tell me that Uiharu ultimately wins this one.
There’s a huge discrepancy in the vote percentage numbers here, but do keep in mind that Akari theoretically had the tougher group (and probably deeper), so that took some votes away from her. Still, although Railgun has been widely inconsistent so far, look for Uiharu to finally win one (after losing last year in a 1-vote heartbreaker), although again, we are likely to get an interesting fight out of this.
Group 10 3rd 268 32.48% Touwa Meme @ Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko
Group 12 1st 309 48.58% Charlotte Dunois (Charles) @ Infinite Stratos
Group 8 2nd 392 47.98% Touwa Erio @ Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko
>Ah yes, one of the most anticipated matches in Saimoe Round One after Homura-Mikoto.
>First and foremost, disregard the split. We have proven last year that it rarely works in high profile matches like this.
>Moving on, we’l find out what both factions are made of in this match that might end up deciding Block E (!?). Erio ended up posting bigger numbers than Char. Char had the better percentage in votes as aided by a a weaker than group compared to Erio, who only lost to Mami by less than twenty. That’s saying a lot considering how Madoka Magica ended up tearing apart the preliminaries. As of this moment I’m gonna say that Erio is the favorite to win this one, and it would take an inspiring performance from IS to give Char a chance to win this. That’s my take on this matter for now. As usual, I’ll go in better depth on this match’s gameday.
So what has happened between the time I wrote that piece above and now?
Denpa has stayed perfect, while IS has suffered a few hiccups along the way. We’ve seen plenty of upsets/prelim results reversals. So where will this one fall?
It’s really hard to bet against Erio considering what Denpa Onna has seen so far. Meanwhile IS hasn’t looked threatening at all, (mea culpa on hyping them way early). And if you’ve been regularly following this blog you may have noticed that last week’s poll featured Char vs. Erio, and who you think will win. The end result went in Erio’s way, but this time I’m gonna diverge from the minority and gamble with Char.
I’m counting on the fact that the impressive string of wins of by Denpa Onna’s support characters and Erio’s outstanding mark in the Prelims have 2ch thinking that Erio is a force to be reckoned with soon, and see her as the greater threat over Char (who is obviously not a pushover either). There’s that, and of course, we have seen plenty of times already in this round alone how Prelim results end up not mattering.
Ultimately, this is Erio’s match to lose, I’m just hoping for an entertaining match at this point, and I know fake votes will be there in droves to keep both factions and us spectators on our heels.
Group 16 9th 170 21.49% Kondou Mayuka @ Onii-chan no Koto
Group 15 6th 198 27.54% Yukikaze Panettone @ Dog Days
Group 9 9th 151 20.08% Msyu @ C
>It appears wind is blowing in Dog Days’ favor once again as the draw gifts Yukikaze a virtual freebie. But a closer look has me thinking that it’s gonna be a tight match with Mayuka. I’m gonna give Yukikaze the benefit of the doubt here, however.
Another interesting match. Msyu has a fighting chance too, actually, so this should be a great three-way in retrospect. Onii-chan no Koto will put their perfect R1 record on the line against Dog Days who have been on-and-off, but I believe she has the best chance of winning here. Dog Days has probably the slight edge over Onii-chan no Koto in faction strength, and that might be the edge that Yukikaze needs.
Prediction: Uiharu, Char, Yukikaze
Picks: Uiharu, Char, Yukikaze
Manga Saimoe Section
Fourth Manga Saimoe, Prelim Two, Group Seven Quick Results:
Rozen Maiden wins again as Souseiseki pushes past Rei, Mikasa
So yeah, Rozen wins again, etc, etc. Although at the rate they are going they might fizzle in the end in the possibility that they might get sufficient hate. The thing though that’s different between AST and MST is that tactics and strategy doesn’t really prove to be significant enough to alter the results so far. But who knows? The prospect of Rozen 3-peating might be a turnoff to other voters and that could ultimately lead to their demise. Still a long way to go in this one, however.
And yeah, called it right with Boku. Mikasa and Rei were up there too. Akari? Not high enough.
Here’s my quick one for the next group, Group Eight:
Chiba Kirino (BB)
Okay, there’s not much depth in this group but we have two MS “pillars” going at it. Kirino vs. Nodoka (last year’s semifinalist). Expect the girl in the internet to style here, especially when backed up by Koromo and the three other Saki charas. Should be fun to see how this one will turn out.
Finally, two more MTG as my set is slowly shaping up.
And check back in a few hours for the updated overview charts (the ones where the eliminated competitors are grayed out). After Blocks C and D, here’s where we are at:
Uiharu should be favorite to win here thanks to faction power, but should be wary of a backstab by Saten fans who would be keen to avoid a split, though Sayaka fans might do something about that too. Yukikaze should emerge victorious, but will have to be wary against Ochinko’s BL freak. With that, we’re down to the titanic clash between Erio and Charlotte.
Firstly, the split will not be much of a factor. Of course some votes will be placed on Meme, but it won’t be drastic enough to affect Erio’s chances of winning it. Meme’s the second least popular of the 5 Denpa girls who made it to Round 1 after all.
Erio was impressive and finished second only to Mami in her prelim group, overwhelming the likes of Yui of K-ON!! by 100+ votes. Charlotte finished first in a relatively weaker group – and questions were asked about her strength since she managed “only” a 60-vote winning margin, especially since Kuroneko won her comparatively easy prelim group by almost a 100-vote margin the previous day. However, Kuroneko’s popularity is somewhat higher that that of Char, and people are underestimating Asuha’s strength in Char’s group.
With regards to series strength, I posted some stats on my Twitter account earlier on:
Total votes + average vote % for best three performers (prelims): Denpa Onna 872/39.23% vs IS 887/40.64%
Total votes + average vote % for best two performers so far in the 1st round: Denpa Onna 517/51.44% vs IS 531/50.82%
Worth noting that none of the Best 3 performers for IS (Char, Cecilia and Houki) in the prelims have yet to feature in Round One thus far, so it seems that IS does have a slight advantage over Denpa in terms of series strength. However, both series have impressed in the main round so far.
As for future threats, there could be a possibility of block voting for IS on 13 October, depending on how results go. However, both Erio and Charlotte presents a similar threat level to other contenders, so it could be hard for voters to pinpoint one out for strategic voting today. On the surface though, it seems that Erio’s the greater threat, thanks to misconception of prelim stats and the fact that she’s more ‘loli’ than Charlotte. Also, Erio’s opponent in Round 3 could be Sayaka, who will be wary that she ran Mami close in the prelims.
So, how will 2ch vote today? I don’t know. Logical analysis seems to point at Char, though my gut feeling says it’s gonna be Erio. “Gut” has failed me miserably for the big match-ups so far, so gonna go with logic here. It’s gonna be bittersweet no matter the outcome, because I like all three characters.
Picks: Mercelinda, Abstained, Abstained
Prediction: Uiharu, Charlotte, Yukikaze