Denpa Onna to Seishun no Otoko’s Maekawa survived a tightly-contested match against Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai’s Tamura Manami to progress to the Second Round of Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011. Maekawa utilized a late rally to overcome an early deficit from Manami to join Mifune Ryuuko in Round Two and keep Denpa Onna perfect in Round One. Anyamal Tantei Kiruminzoo’s Hatori Kanon finished last in the three-way fight.
To-Love-Ru’s Kotegawa Yui finally scored a Main Draw victory after four tries, defeating To Aru Majutsu no Index’s Misaka No. 10032 and Amagami’s Kamizaki Risa. In the final match, Panty and Stocking with Garterbelt’s Stocking Anarchy also prevailed in her match against Oretachi ni Tsubasa wa Nai’s Watari Asuka and Star Driver’s North Maiden.
1 219 Maekawa-san @ Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko
2 214 Tamura Manami @ Ore no Imouto ga Konnani Kawaii Wake ga Nai
3 83 Hatori Kanon @ Anyamal Tantei Kiruminzoo
1 249 Kotegawa Yui @ Motto To Love-Ru
2 213 Misaka sister (#10032) @ To Aru Majutsu no Index II
3 79 Kamizaki Risa @ Amagami SS
1 204 Stocking Anarchy @ Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt
2 167 Watarai Asuka @ Oretachi ni Tsubasa wa Nai
3 100 North Maiden (Sakana-chan) @ Star Driver: Kagayaki no Takuto
Well, that streak of clean prediction slate was certainly short-lived, and we’re back to good ‘ol unpredictable Saimoe. Lots of twists today, and all things considered, the low volume of votes has turned Saimoe into something very volatile and unpredictable. Just as planned, 2ch?
*** aside ***
Baseball has sabremetrics. I suppose it’s time to coin a new term when it comes to Saimoe? Saimoemetrics. I kinda like the sound of that. Saimoe, you know, like baseball, is a sport, after all. (etc, etc)
So why this talk about Saimoemetrics? Today’s outcome had me curious about the amount of Prelims reversals (i.e. “lol upsets” ) in the past tournaments. Of course this require a huge amount of work, but considering Saimoe is a serious business, it might be worth a shot someday.
I’ve always been a fan of the “Prelims is relevant” mantra — eventual Saimoe champs are born from Prelim winners anyway since the moe tournament boom (2006) and the only abberation from this was Taiga in 2009. (Curiously, 2009 was when I started a blistering 29-3 in predictions, or something like that).
But the way things are going, this might be the moment where the heir-to-the-throne might be someone who didn’t win her group. There are telling signs – this unusal amount of prelms reversals, for one. Of course, the tournament’s touted big three (now that Homura is gone) – Madoka, Kuroneko and Kirino are there to preserve tradition, but we might be moving on to a new phase in Saimoe, and if we ever are, I’ll consider today’s result as one of those impactful days in Saimoe 2011. I guess I’ll get more into this in my incoming Round One summary, and as we move along.
*** end aside ***
Manami’s losing still is a bit confounding (she lost like almost 1/3 of her votes compared to the Prelims), while Maekawa just maintained parity and that was enough to win. There were no high profile names today though unlike Manami’s prelim group (which had Erio, K-On’s Yui and Mami, among others). There’s that factor. We can also speculate that Denpa Onna is just on a hot tear right now. (For the umpteenth time, that spells trouble for Char). Or that OreiMo’s not invincible in this tournament (except for K and K?, yeah, right.) Or that Satou Satomi’s characters just have bad luck in Saimoe and all that jazz (okay, not really, due to small sample size, and I’m intentionally just grasping at straws here). I could go on searching for explanations, but in the end this year’s Saimoe is just really tough to crack.
Speaking of luck, it really is the year where unpredictability reigns and streaks end. Kotegawa Yui’s round one losing streak finally comes to an end after three years of Saimoe futility. How about that?
Raildex continues to show chinks in its armor, and just can’t keep the #winning ways. They get respite today, but tomorrow is gonna be an uphill battle for then. As usual, I’ll get to that come gameday.
So I was wrong again, this time with TLR as if responding to my Round One preview slight (they’re gonna win only one match, Mikan’s, etc, etc.). To Yui’s credit though, her Prelim Group was a really tough one, so she might have been stronger than her numbers tell. Or that prelims don’t matter. And here we go again.
Numbers did matter in the end for the last match involving Stocking, whose stats did hold up, sparing me from the proverbial golden sombrero (technically, it’s baseball hat trick, but I figured I use another term for once).
1-2 predictions, dropping my record to 26-13. Same with picks, so that’s a miserable 13-26 for me in that one.
TLDR 1: To my credit, I did call that all three are gonna be close matches. But there is a need to revise my approach to predicting the future ones.
Next matches, please.
Since I posted late, it does not seem right that I’ll change halfway now that the match is underway. So I’ll be referring to my Round One preview predictions (as usual)
Group 14 9th 108 19.64% Senou Natsuru @ Kämpfer für die Liebe
Group 4 12th 141 18.98% Ritos Tortilla @ Shukufuku no Campanella
Group 13 27th 78 9.94% Mikogami Riko @ Anyamal Tantei Kiruminzoo
>Ritos. Tortilla. Now I’m hungry. Another hard match to pick the winner correctly, but I’m going with Ritos, in spite of the lower finish compared to Natsuru, the former was in a tougher group and had slightly better numbers considering that.
Natsuru vs. Ritos. Tricky match, which is becoming the norm for this round so far. Shukufuku has been hurping so far (Carina and Agnes got pummeled), but I think this is where Ritos comes to the rescue and give Campanella at least a single win. Don’t be shocked on the event that Natsuru somehow manages to pull this off, but don’t count on it. New > old is the general rule so far, so yeah.
Group 10 14th 90 10.91% Evangeline A.K. McDowell @ Mahou Sensei Negima! Mou Hitotsu no Sekai
Group 15 3rd 211 29.35% Tachibana Isana @ Yumekui Merry
Group 9 13th 129 17.15% Satellizer el Bridget @ Freezing
>All good things must come to an end. Eventually. So long, Eva’s streak. It’s been a memorable run.
Isn’t it sad, Eva? Her movie apparently, got shafted, and it is apparent that she is facing tall odds here.
No amount of Saimoe experience is gonna save her from this Isana “nightmare”
Group 15 19th 99 13.77% Tatsuno Toshiko @ Soredemo Machi wa Mawatteiru
Group 3 13th 121 15.39% Zenigata Tsugiko @ Tantei Opera Milky Holmes
Group 3 15th 111 14.12% Ootori Naru @ Oretachi ni Tsubasa wa Nai
>Hah, a rematch between two characters unlucky enough to be in Group Three. Zenigata finished a few notches ahead of Naru in that one, but the former suffers from side character syndrome. She has the support of Milky Holmes to overcome that, and she’s gonna take down Naru again just like a G4.
So once again, this is one of those matches where I ended up hyping MH. Based on Asuka’s performance, we might even see a Naru win here. It’s the classic fight of mojo vs main character status, and it’s pretty much a coinflip on who prevails. As for Toshiko, I’m counting her out. If it was, Futaba Kon though, this might be a really complicated match. But it wasn’t so it all boils down to Tsugiko and Naru.
TLDR2: Not much fanfare today, don’t want to discount the fact that we might end up having great matches again.
Predictions: Ritos, Isana, Tsugiko
Picks: Riko, Eva, Toshiko
Manga Saimoe Section
Ah, I got this right at least, the reliable Tamaki continues to prove her timelessness in MS, and doing business as usual: #winning. Miyanaga Saki proved to be she is in a lower end of the Saki hierarchy in moe tournaments, as she did not even reach top five. HnG continues to prove where it stands in the MS trinity as Hamster just barely got edged by Red Braver for the Prelim win.
Series that are not strong in MST as compared to AST, Volume Zero: Zero no Tsukaima. Louise didn’t get zero, but she was awfully close.
Let’s move on to quick Group Six preview
Sakura ( CCS, 2009 Top 8 )
Eve (Black Cat)
Matsuda ( Waqwaq, 2005 Top 8 )
Taiga (note, this is in context of MST)
Predicted winner: Sakura