Trainwreck

previews, results

Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu’s Himeji Mizuki won her Round One match for the second straight year, withstanding a late rally by Steins;Gate’s Shiina Mayuri to eke out a win in Round One of Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011. Settling for third in that match was Densetsu no Yuusha no Densetsu’s Ferris Eris.

Sora no Otoshimono’s Astraea meanwhile gave her series its first win in her debut match, taking out a hapless Cordelia Glauca (Tantei Opera Milky Holmes). Amagami’s Nakata Sae finished third.

The last match saw Sengoku Otome’s Toyotomi Hideyoshi edging Kore wa Zombie Desu Ka’s Eucliwood Hellscythe in another close match while Moshidora’s Kawashima Minami ended up third.

***

A02
1    273    Astraea @ Sora no Otoshimono series
2    212    Cordelia Glauca @ Tantei Opera Milky Holmes
3    100    Nakata Sae @ Amagami SS
A06
1    252    Toyotomi Hideyoshi (Hide Yoshino) @ Sengoku Otome: Momoiro Paradox
2    248    Eucliwood Hellscythe (Eu) @ Kore wa Zombie Desuka
3    75    Ferris Eris @ Densetsu no Yuusha no Densetsu
A10
1    266    Himeji Mizuki @ Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu: Matsuri
2    264    Shiina Mayuri @ Steins;Gate
3    80    Kawashima Minami @ Moshidora

Man, it doesn’t happen often, but I just did a Saimoe prediction hat trick (like that in baseball a.k.a. not a good thing). Saimoe continues to be interesting as unpredictability has reached new heights. While there were red flags as I was doing the yesterday’s preview, I ended up ignoring them.

True enough Hideyoshi (I prefer to call her Yoshihide to be honest), is on par with Eu and just has enough in the final push to snatch the W. And that just might be the conclusion to the highly disappointing performance from Kore wa Zombie Desu Ka. I should have seen it coming considering that it was not that popular in 2ch during the time of its airing, but my biases got the better of me.

Astraea-Cordelia also toyed with assumptions. Not only Cordelia ended up losing, but it was by more than 50 votes too. Looks like I need to tinker with the tiers once again, as SoraOto ended up getting the best of Milky Holmes in a crucial match like this. Although to be fair, this is just on par with my writeup about Sora no Otoshimono in my preseason preview.

Lastly, Mayuri bowing out of the tournament against BakaTest’s ace, Himeji ends up as another surprise. The former had an inspiring performance in her, while the latter, not so much. Are we really in the correct world line? Anyway, the key here iIguess is the word “ace.” At the end of it all, it all came down to an ace from a less powerful series losing to a supporting character from a more powerful series. Yep, things like that happen in Saimoe, and that’s one theory that possibly explains this outcome.

Predictions 0-3 (2-4)
Picks 0-3 (1-5)

orz. double hat trick of the bad kind. Moving on, what do we have here:

Cue in the usual copypastas from the first round preview article

A03
Group 10 2nd 391 47.39% Victorique de Blois @ Gosick
Group 10 8th 195 23.64% Nagi @ A Channel
Group 11 10th 131 20.34% Kosaka Chihiro @ Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai series

>I don’t need a wellspring of wisdom or fountain of sagacity to see that Victorique will win this. Of course how much of a beating she will deliver will be something to see. We saw that she can hang out with the big guns in the prelims, let’s see if she can beat down like the big ‘uns do.

The A-Chan combo (which I honestly overlooked) will make it less of a beating by Victorique, but it doesn’t change the fact that Victorique will still pull it off.

A07
Group 6 18th 95 11.98% Ume-sensei @ Hidamari Sketch x ☆☆☆ Tokubetsu-hen3
Group 4 20th 80 10.77% Carina Verritti @ Shukufuku no Campanella
Group 1 5th 182 33.39% Tachibana Miya @ Amagami SS

>Miya’s up against two second prelim qualifiers. Obvious winner is obvious.

Gimme for Miya. Amusingly, even if you combined those two’s numbers they still are less than what Miya managed to get. Nishishi.

A11
Group 14 4th 174 31.64% Ricotta Elmar @ Dog Days
Group 15 10th 172 23.92% Minna-Dietlinde Wilcke @ Strike Witches 2
Group 15 1st 250 34.77% Tooru @ A Channel

>It’s another case of a stronger faction supporting character heading against another slightly weaker faction’s ace. The funny thing is that two years ago, Minna reached the furthest out of the witches, but I think that was an aberration caused by an extremely easy bracket. I think Tooru gets the W in this one.

Even without the combo, Tooru will still win this. That just seals the deal.

As compared to yesterday’s trainwreck this one seems to be easier… or is it?

TL;DR:
Predictions: Victorique, Miya, Tooru
Picks: Victorique, Miya, Ricotta

Check back for LuniazKun’s thoughts on today’s matches.

Wow, this year’s Saimoe continues to surprise, and it’s only Day 2! Personally, this is the first time that I’ve gotten all of my predictions wrongly for the day. Two of my Top 10 for the year (Minami and Cordelia) crashed out too, so yeah, a bad day for me.

KoreZom’s dismal performance during the prelims carries on into the main round, and surely with that, Haruna will be their only realistic chance of having a representative in the second round. Astrea defeated Cordelia with ease today – Milky Holmes continue to baffle me with its actual series strength, but their other characters have plenty of opportunities to reach the second round, unlike KoreZom. Perhaps the shock of the day was Mayuri succumbing to Himeji of BakaTest, a result that belies prelim statistics. The events of the past two days seem to indicate that prelim results are masking the actual potential of a challenger, so be prepared for even more surprises in the near future.

So next up, some match-ups with perhaps less intensity. Miya, being one of the stronger Amagami girls in the competition, should have a comfortable time doing battle against Ume and Carina who only qualified via the second prelim round. Tooru, A-Chan’s ace, should win hers too unless we have yet another surprise. Block voting would mean that Nagi could challenge Victorique for a place in the second round tomorrow, but I think our detective has enough raw power to progress. Victorique has the same VA as Tooru, so that could help counter the threat of block voting by a lil’ bit.

Picks: Victorique, Miya, Minna
Prediction: Victorique, Miya, Tooru

6 thoughts on “Trainwreck

  1. just gonna leave this here from the irc chat

    > WORD AROUND TOWN IS THAT EUCLIWOOD IS ISML FUCKBAIT AND HAS NO RELEVANCE IN THE ACTUAL COMPETITION LOL
    > WORD AROUND TOWN IS THAT KORE WA ZOMBIE DESU KA IS A SHIT SERIES WITH SHIT CHARACTERS LOL
    > WORD AROUND TOWN IS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ARE SO BUTTHURT THEY’LL BE CRAPPING FROM EVERY OTHER ORIFICE ASIDE FROM THEIR BUTTHOLE

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