This is not the timeline!

To Aru Kagaku no Railgun’s Misaka Mikoto avenged her Preliminary Round setback against Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica’s Akemi Homura with a stunning upset victory. Mikoto previously placed third in her preliminary group with Homura who took the top spot.

In the other matches, Seitokai Yakuindomo’s Hagimuru Suzu secured her spot in the second round, defeating Meitantei Cona’s Haibara Ai, Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai’s Nagase Jun and Anyamal Tantei Kiruminzoo’s Mikogami Nagisa.

The last group has Itsuwa, also from Raildex, notching a comfortable victory over Rio: Rainbow Gate’s Rio Rollins Tachibana and K-ON’s Manabe Nodoka.


1 367 Hagimura Suzu @ Seitokai Yakuindomo [36.81%]
2 289 Haibara Ai @ Meitantei Conan [28.99%]
3 180 Nagase Jun @ Kami nomi zo Shiru Sekai series [18.05%]
4 161 Mikogami Nagisa @ Anyamal Tantei Kiruminzoo [16.15%]
1 696 Misaka Mikoto @ To Aru Kagaku no Railgun OVA / To Aru Majutsu no Index II [52.02%]
2 585 Akemi Homura @ Puella Magi Madoka ☆ Magica [43.72%]
3 57 Sara @ Jewelpet Tinkle [4.26%]
1 508 Itsuwa @ To Aru Majutsu no Index II [51.06%]
2 273 Rio Rollins Tachibana @ Rio: Rainbow Gate! [27.44%]
3 214 Manabe Nodoka @ K-ON!! [21.50%]

Looks like Shana-Evangeline still holds the title as the best Saimoe opening match of all time, but nonetheless that was quite a tone-setting upset by Mikoto. Surprising, but not that much. I should have stuck with my gut feel, but hindsight is 20/20. Gotta hand it to those valiant fifteen who thought that Mikoto will win it. So yeah, as the alternate cover proved to be just right as Mikoto ended up breaking Block A wide open: a Block Buster.

So what else to note for- aside from the obvious no one is safe anymore (I’m looking at you Ika Musume, Kuroneko), it’s kinda surprising how much of a rout that was. This reminds me the most of the Kagami-Mikuru-chan Round One match two years ago which was most likely engineered by ToraDora strategists.

The stark difference is that Mikoto is not a Saimoe pushover at all. But yeah, let’s see who will reap the benefits of this outcome. I’m quite sure the aftershocks of this match will be felt for a while. One thing I can deduce from this: Kaname Madoka just got evens stronger.

Did we already meet the quota of an upset per round? I’d like to think so.

As for the other matches, they were just as expected, except that Ai and Rio ended up taking second place instead of their more heralded opponents.

Now let’s move on to the nitty-gritty of the next set of matches:

Group 6    5th    238    30.01%    Astraea @ Sora no Otoshimono series
Group 6    14th    147    18.54%    Nakata Sae @ Amagami SS
Group 16    7th    281    35.52%    Cordelia Glauca @ Tantei Opera Milky Holmes

I’m gonna copypasta my notes on this from my round one preview, and yeah, my stance remains the same.

>Cordelia. Just better numbers around and Milky Holmes is definitely the stronger series at this point. Both were in almost-equally strong groups with good turnout, so that lessens my doubts regarding Cordelia’s ability to beat Astraea.

I’m thinking of a margin of less than 50 in this one though. A “mite b cool” match.

Group 2    6th    184    32.80%    Eucliwood Hellscythe (Eu) @ Kore wa Zombie Desuka?
Group 1    23rd    61    11.19%    Ferris Eris @ Densetsu no Yuusha no Densetsu
Group 4    7th    190    25.57%    Toyotomi Hideyoshi (Hide Yoshino) @ Sengoku Otome: Momoiro Paradox

>Kore wa Zombie Desu Ka might have been a disappointment, but Eu sure got lucky with this gift match. Yoshihide might make it a bit tougher, but she’s certainly not someone that can give Eu a scare.

Okay I’m skeptical now, just for a bit, but I’m gonna stick with the more popular series pulling it out. Group Four has more depth than Group Two so yeah it’s pretty much even in this point. So it’s definitely not a gift match as I originally thought without honestly referring to the numbers, but yeah, still, Eu has enough to at least pull this out.

Group 5    9th    247    29.20%    Himeji Mizuki @ Baka to Test to Shoukanjuu: Matsuri
Group 11    13th    112    17.39%    Kawashima Minami @ Moshidora
Group 8    3rd    299    36.60%    Shiina Mayuri @ Steins;Gate

>Without even taking into account individual strengh, it’s easy to see that Mayuri will win this one based on faction strengh. BakaTest and Steins;Gate are also both airing so that is not a factor that will decide this match, just sheer force.

Himeji vs. Mayuri, and while the former had Saimoe experience, the latter had the better resume in the prelims. Now, taking the numbers into account now plus the context, I would be surprised if Himeji pulls off the upset. Poor Minami can’t Dream Note herself out of this one.

TL;DR version:
Predictions – Cordelia, Eu, Mayuri
Picks – Cordelia, Ferris, Minami

I will now be turning the reigns over to LuniazKun with his thoughts soon to follow.

First day of the main round and we already our first high-profile exit in the form of Homura. Jubilation for the Railgun, despair for the Puella Magi, but this is exactly what makes Saimoe so interesting to watch. This wasn’t just an ordinary assassination – BiriBiri’s winning margin of 111 votes (and her winning % being above Itsuwa’s) showed her prowess too, and it sends out a warning signal to the other favorites, especially the newcomers, that the veterans are still capable of kicking ass when required. In the other match-ups, Nodoka of K-ON!! was unable to secure a third consecutive second round place, finishing below runaway winner Itsuwa and the unfancied Rio, even. Suzu emerged as the winner in her battle wth Ai Haibara, who seemingly held the advantage throughout the day but sadly, she was entangled by the fake votes involved in the Homu-Biri clash.

Moving on, a series of match-ups that acts as a cool-down after a high intensity opening day. Mayuri will win her group with ease, since BakaTest isn’t a strong series when it comes down to Saimoe. Eucliwood should have enough power to win hers too despite the disappointing performances by the KoreZom girls in the prelims, so our attention goes to the third match-up: Sora no Otoshimono’s Astrea against Milky Holmes’ Cordelia. Looking at their prelim results, both were involved in groups which consisted of several high-profile characters, earning a respectable finish. That said though, Cordelia’s vote count has a smaller deviation than that of Astrea’s. Ikaros’ duel with Elly in Prelim Group 1 also provides us with a rough gauge to base on, with the former just edging the latter out by 9 votes. Cordelia, who’s ahead of Elly in the MH popularity ranks, should be able to seize the victory here.

Picks: Cordelia, Ferris, Minami
Prediction: Cordelia, Eu, Mayuri


5 thoughts on “This is not the timeline!

  1. Game8910 August 16, 2011 / 2:12 pm

    All according to keikaku

  2. TLDR Animu (@tldranimu) August 16, 2011 / 5:50 pm

    All things considered, I am not surprised that Misaka won, and really, it is good to see that veterans still have strength where it counts, but you can’t help but a feel a little disappointment or frustration that Homura lost, especially given her character in the series. But this will make the other Madoka characters stronger, especially Madoka herself.

  3. Kaosu August 16, 2011 / 10:23 pm


    *Bangs head on table for 10 minutes*


    Poor Homuhomu definitely deserved better than a first round assassination.

  4. daze August 18, 2011 / 1:11 am

    Homura losing needed to happen for Saimoe IMO.


    it’s not an assassination if the character she is facing is actually relevant. sorry you’re mad that one of your favorite characters lost.
    shit happens.

  5. Kaosu August 18, 2011 / 11:18 am


    Relevant? Yes. Able to beat Homura alone? No.

    The assassination part hardly important though, cause I just thought she deserved better than a first round exit. Madoka will only ever get 1 shot, not like Raildex which is still going.

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