Building Blocks: Saimoe 2010 First Round Preview

Draw’s all and done; the brackets have been set up, we get a break before shit gets started; and what better way to do that than to start some speculation and predictions? Well, for the first round at least. Most will be just pure guesswork aided with preliminary data, and as for the rest, whatever. Kidding aside, let’s get this going.

8-03: Noda Miki v Miyano Mayu v Suminoya Kureha v Jinda Komaki i vĀ  Kusakabe Misuzu

Kureha will try to make it close, but Noda is really favored here. The rest are second and it’s all good for me to get a decent start in Saimoe. YAY.

8-04: Shirafuji Kyouko v Hiiragi v Todoroki Yachiyo v Ushiromiya Maria

Amusing matchup because it’s just a weird way of Working!! to get screwed in the pairings. If it weren’t for the split, Yachiyo might be favored, but going with Hiiragi here. And I’m fine with that. šŸ˜€

8-05: Yoshida Kazumi v. Miyuki Irie v Yuno v Mikogami Rimu

Yuno a huge favorite. And again, totally okay with it.

8-06: Hanyuu v Akaba Chizuru v Nymph v Hattori Junko

This is tough to predict. Either Chizuru, Nymph or Hanyuu have a realistic win it. Ended up leaning on Chizuru, but this can totall y change come game day.

8-07: Sengoku Nadeko v Kannagi Noel v Sairenji Haruna v Suminoe Riko

Nadeko in a blowout, which should be a good way to boost confidence when you’re up next against…

8-08: Hirasawa Yui v Awara Chikako v Nozaki Namiko v Sakurazaki Setsuna

Poor three lovable characters having to deal with last year’s finalist. The outcome should be obvious.

8-09: Hanekawa Tsubasa v Ikaros v Mikogami Riko v Houtou

What do we have here, a replay of Prelim 1, Group 1. Tsubasa ended up outranking Ikaros in there, expect the same to happen here. Ikaros can make it tough, and there should be no surprise if she won it though. But leaning towards Tsubasa + Bakemonogatari mojo here.

8-10: Araragi Karen v Kushinada Nemuru v Shimada Minami v Tsuchida Satsuki

I think Minami is the favorite here. And going with her despite block votes against her (Shinobu and KarenĀ  on the same day)

8-11: Sanzen’in Nagi v Takanashi Nazuna v Yukimura Chizuru v Kuzumi Nana

Won’t be a landslide because Nazuna can do some damge, but Nagi will still win handily.

8-03: Nazuna v Akashi v Mizuno Kaede v Kiyama Harumi

Slight edge to Kaede. Nazuna has Hidamari mojo, but it won’t be enough. I hope I’m wrong, though…

8-04: Hattori Kanon v Fujibayashi Ryou v Chikumaen Kaho v Nogizaka Mika

Clannad can still win, if the pairings end up like this. If this was 2009 I’d five it Mika, but their power has regressed so much that they couldn’t even cary Shiina into the second prelims. So yeah, sticking to Ryou for this.

8-05: Shana v Nakamura Yuri v Selnia Flameheart v Kuzaki Rinko

Prelim One, Group 15, Take two. Same outcome, but it will be much closer. And yeah, this match is an open ground for strategic voting. Still expecting Shana to go through blazing, and the highest scorer from prelim will end up passing the stern test.

8-06: Hachikuji Mayoi v Asahina Mikuru v Yin v Saikyou Tomomi

As I’ve said before, 2010 Haruhi is not as strong as the 2006 one, so it makes it much easier for me to predict Mayoi will win this. Intriguing matchup, nonetheless

8-07: Tohsaka Rin v Takamachi Nanoha v Suzuki v Toudou Lilicia

Another interesting matchup, but we’ve seen what happened when Saber got paired up against Nanoha during the prelims. Not much is gonna change here, although this is another match ripe for strategic voting. Another one of the top vote getters ended up with a dangerous matchup, i see.

8-08: Bernkastel v Ishigaki Tamaki v Beatrice v Ikeda Kana

woah, funny pairing of Bern and Beato. even without the split, the outcome is decided. I.KE.DA. it is.

8-09: Saginomiya Isumi v Alicia Melchiott v Daichi Kaoru v Togame

;_; Alicia. Not even “that” can save her against Isumi. The latter won’t be losing her way in this one, I guarantee that.

8-10: Ryuubi v Asakura Ryouko v Oshino Shinobi v Miyazaki Nodoka

This is the instance were block voting will help Shinobu. 2010 Asakura Ryouko is not that tough, so yeah, the vampire will pull through.

8-11: Himari v Kousaka Tamaki v Jinguuji Kuesu v Senou Kaori

If this was 2009 Saki, Kaori would have pulled it off, but I’m impressed by Himari (and Shizuku’s) showing in the Prelims. Close match because of the split, but I think the Omamori Himari faction has enough to carry Himari.

8-16: Kataoka Yuuki vĀ  Nishizawa Ayumu v Asagiri Kaname v Nogizaka Haruka

Saki-Hayate block, and Hamster drew the wrong end of the stick paired against one of the most powerful Saki chara – Tacos. So for the first time in four tries, Hamster will exit in the first round.

8-17: Himeji Mizuki v Kajiki Yumi v Horo v Yusa

BakaTest might not have met my expectations preseason, but Himeji is still the ace. Horo will make things interesting, but this isn’t KBM; Horo gets kicked out in the first round, although not without a good fight.

8-18: Sawamura Tomoki v Angol Mois v Manabe Nodoka v Yoshinoya-sensei

K-On! is not the faction to beat without a good reason, in matches like this, count on series mojo to push Nodoka into the second round. Also third, consecutive match day with Saki in it.

8-19: Maria v Aizawa Sakuya v Oomichi Miyabi v Kujiin Mika

Lucky Hayate didn’t get done on by a damaging split. Mika is a character with decent strength, but i don’t think it won’t be enough to throw Sakuya and Maria crashing at the same time. So yeah, for the second year in a row, Maria will not be losing her first round match. There’s a chance of this match being close because of lolsplit, but not counting on that, since Hayate pulled it off before in 2008.

8-20: Kazari Uiharu v Segawa Izumi v Takei Hisa v Souya Yuki

One of the premiere matches of the first round. The last timeĀ  a three-way of this caliber happened was last year, Miyako v Koromo v Izumi. We know how epic that turned out. Tough to call, but I liked Uiharu’s prelim performance better, and Railgun will win this major battle, just because. And yeah, spoiling you the headline for this one – Day of Judgment, because I know Kuroko will be winning her match against Kijima Saki held at the same day.

8-21: Sheryl Nome v Konori Mii v Miyanaga Teru v Liechtenstein

Sixth CONSECUTIVE day with a Saki match on deck. (Koromo is on the same day as Maria v Sakuya, et. al; more on this later) So yeah, it will all end up with Mii and Teru competing, and Teru despite her lack of screentime will steal it for Saki just like last year.

8-22: Fukuji Mihoko v Yamaguchi Kisaragi v Houjou Satoko v Hinagiku

make that SEVEN days. Kyaputen an overwhelming favorite. Poor Kisaragi stuck in the middle of this. Also, pity good ol’ Satoko.

8-23: Kunihiro Hajime v Mitsuki Sohara v Eve Neuschwanstein v Sonozaki Mion

2006 Mion, this ain’t, so count her out on this one. Sohara’s series mojo is not strong enough. So yeah, Hajime reverses her fortune after losing first round to Hamster last year. Also, EIGHTH consecutive voting day for Saki.

8-24: Haramura Nodoka v Yamada v Sakura Akari v Yuiki Yaya

And here’s the NINTH one! Saki Block it is, but will they actually take it? That’s for later, but for sure, Nodocchi will be putting on the rout on this one.


8-16: Kagurazaka Asuna v Ayuzawa Misaki v Kikusaka Kouchou v Sakurano Kurimu

I wanted Misa-chan to do better, but against Aka-chan, looks like it’s an uphill battle. So yeah, end of the road for the Kaichou.

8-17: Amano Saki v Yamanaka Sawako v Ousawa Mimina v Alice

Poor Alice ;_; it’s going to be close between Sawa-sensei and Dairi, but leaningĀ  on the MC-esque status ofĀ  Amano Saki. So yeah, Kanamemo wins this one.

8-18: Komori Kiri v Enjutsu Kouro v Wilhelmina Carmel v Tsumuhana Isuzu

Wilhelmina has a decent chance of winning this one. It’s tough to call because Komori Kiri is no longer her 2008 self. Wilhelmina, it is.

8-19: Amae Koromo v Kiriya Nozomi v Suzukawa Koume v Kirishima Akari

rage.jpg. TYM got screwed by the draw so badly, they’ll be extinct once the first round finishes. so yeah, i mad. moving on to predictions, it certainly is a great match, Koromo being the slight favorite. Nozomi has an opportunity for an upset. The top finishers from the prelims are really being tested, but I think The Koromo will pass this one. she better, because it would be despair-inducing if i lose two of my top ten charas for this year in one match.

8-20: Tsuruya v Shirai Kuroko v Kijima Saki v Soga Keena

Again, this is the day of Judgment. so Kuroko will teleport into the second round aided by Uiharu on the other side.

8-21: Fujibayashi Kyou v Charlotte Hazelrink v Sonohara Anri v Ogata Rina

Gifted with a kind opening match, Kyou should get this effortlessly, but the real fight begins come second round, but that is for another day.

8-22: Hiro v Celty Sturluson v A-tan v Hatena Yousei

no trolling mode from the Question Fairy this year, and Hiro appears to performed the best in the prelims, so going with the safe choice. if HnG3 was animated, of course, the answer would have to be A-tan

8-23: Aruruu v Ushiromiya Ange v Tsuzuki Otome v Ichinose Yumiko

isn’t it sad, Yumiko-chan. Even if Aruruu isn’t in her 2006 form, given how the rest of the competitors fared, Aruruu is the easy favorite. Lucky her.

8-24: Himegami Aisa v Satou v Liz Chelsie v Yamamoto Nanako

Quite glance at the prelims has me predicting Yamamoto-sensei. You’dĀ  have to be as dense as her not to believe it.

8-25: Koumei v Nagato Yuki v Korone v Hoshina Utau

Unlike last year, Utau drew a fatal pariing, matched against Yuki. What happens next is obvious.

8-26: Tenshi v Suou Pavlichenko v Hanasaki Tsubomi v Index

The biggest match of the first round of Saimoe once again belongs to Index, and once again on the wrong side of it. She’s paired against one of the early tournament favorites, the Angel herself. The third highest vote-getter in the prelims has a huge challenge from the get go, and if she is win the crown, she’d have to earn it. I’m giving Tenshi the benefit of the doubt here. But this matchup will be close, toughly contested, and shitstorm infested, all throughout the day. The fact that it happens on the same day as the Yui match also gives her a considerable edge. Pity Cure Blossom on the middle of crossfire.

8-27: Lisa v Suzuki Jun v Takatsuki Kanade v Ayase Yue

Second consecutive day for a Kanade, this time of the Asura Cryin’ kind. But Lisa I think has the edge here, despite going against K-On mojo. This match is made interesting by the fact that Kanade is aided by block votes, but somewhat I don’t think it’s enough.

8-28: Iwasawa v Bachou v Mafuyu Oribe v Nino

Another tricky matchup, but count on series mojo to increase Iwasawa’s chance of winning.

8-30: Kyon’s sister v Yamada Aoi v Tachibana Himeko v Ogasawara Akiko

Easy for Yamada based on her impressive prelims performance.

8-31: Ranka Lee v Kurumi Erika v Matou Sakura v Houjouin Seika

Reversal of prelims it appears, as Ranka is favored in this matchup as compared to Sheryl’s. For a round, anyway.

9-01: Cecily Cambell v Mahoro Andou v Hanazono Sakura v Mikogami Nagisa

Two of two for Blacksmith duo, it appears. Mostly because their matches are E-A-S-Y. But hey, stuff like this happens.

9-02: Nakamachi Kana v Sangou Shizuku v Ekaterina Kurae v Ryougi Shiki

It would be news to me if Kana loses this one.

9-03: Suzumiya Haruhi v Kasugawa Sasara v Tsukuyomi Komoe v Minakami Misao

No stopping God from advancing into the second round.

8/25: Shimada Hazuki v Yasuri Nanami v Itezora Konayuki v Someya Mako

Mako – because of the fact that she’s up against three second prelim characters. Also, wtf Katanagatari split. What were the odds?

8/26: Yui v Inami Mahiru v Lily Shiraishi v Kamyu

Poor Lily, like Tsubomi, stuck in the clash of heavyweights. AB scored big by having two crucial matches on the same day, for that edge. Yui is the beneficiary, against Working!!’s Inami. I would’ve snap-picked Inami to win if it was preseason, but her disappointing prelims performance has me skeptical. On the other hand Yui did a great job of holding off Index in the prelims. So yeah, Angel Beatdown for the 26th of August.

8/27: Evangeline McDowell v Ania Fortuna v Chouhi v Sakura Kaede

I believe that Eva still has it, even a little bit, although she and Chouhi bordered on second prelim level. Coinflip this is, basically, and I got Eva on a hunch.

8/28: Kanbara Satomi v Maho Yumeno v Mashiro Rima v Satsukitane Mikako

2nd Prelim Qualifier battle is a go! Logic tells me to pick Satomi despite the split, because her performance is the best among these four, and partly because of Shugo Chara nosediving. Rima can still steal it, but yeah, safe choice is Satomi.

8/30: Katsura Hinagiku v Mafuyu Shiina v Umenomori Chise v Miria Mackenzie

And so the second-best prelim performer gets tested from the get-go. Mafuyu is definitely capable of an upset like how Luna did it in 2007, and schemers can take this as an opportunity to take a huge threat out. Mafuyu won her group even, although that group didn’t contain the premiere-tier characters, and she won just barely. On the other hand Hinagiku defeated Tenshi and Mio and Yuuki to win that tight group twelve, and that’s an encouraging sign. I started Saimoe on the belief that HnG still has it, and what better way to validate those beliefs by winning the first huge test? So yeah, if Hina wants to snag the triple-crown, the first huge step begins here. Hinagiku is my prediction.

8/31: Miyanaga Saki v Sorami Kanata v Kuronuma Sawako v Toudou Elis

Rinshan Kaihou is a go, and Saki gets a date with Hinagiku/Mafuyu in round two. But the possibility of Satomi split is just… rough. Sorry, Teiran.

9/01: Senjougahara Hitagi v Mina Tepes v Kurumizawa Ume v Furude Rika

The great matches continue. Rika has been there, winning it all in one of the greatest Saimoe matches of all time. And the road to Saimoe glory passes through her. Yui did it last year (and almost won it all), Hitagi hopes to do it this year. And she will, but Rika will make sure it will be a tough fight. And yeah, this match is also a haven for strategic voting.

9/02: Tainaka Ritsu v Minatsu Shiina v Cal Devens v Koume

Rage meter rising as they had to pair up two of my top-tier characters this early. Replay of Group Four, Prelim One, and same outcome. Ritsu on top with a reasonable margin.

9/03: Airi v Mihoshi Akeno v Tomokane v Tsukabae Shizuka

2nd prelims matchup, here we go again… also, lol Itou Kanae v Itou Kanae. And the Queen’s Blade one, is queen, for a day.

9/04: Misaka Mikoto v Naruko Kanae v Sonozaki Shion v Ein

too easy for Biribiri. next.

9/05: Chika v Mishima Akane v Shizuku v Kirishima Kotone

this is kind of tricky, but at the end of the day, the top character from Omamori Himari will pull through, I think.

9/06: Miyako v Lala Satalin Deviluke v Kanbaru Suruga v Manaka Komaki

thankfully this year Miyako is spared from a lethal opening match. even with Bakemono mojo, Suruga won’t be able to handle Miyako’s raw strength and veteran presence.

9/07: Hirasawa Ui v Ryuumonbuch Touka v Touyoko Momoko v Kondou Mikoto

this is the preview of things to come for Saki, as they try to trudge through friendly fire the entire tournament. Both are reasonably strong characters, but Momoko and Touka will handicap each other leading to Hirasawa Ui stealing this. Would’ve been interesting if this was one on one, but alas, Touka is screwed once again. >mysadface

9/08: Taneshima Poplar v Eruruu v Mitsuko Kongou v Kan’u

Eruruu must have used all her evade stats last year because this year she’s not getting any. It’s a fatal draw for her against Poplar, whose strength seems concealed by those low score in the Prelims. So yeah, Poplar to advance.

9/09: Nakano Azusa v Shannon v Itoshiki Rin v Takanashi Kozue

Easy does it for Azunyan, unlike last year’s matchup. But she’s gonna have a hell of a fight theĀ  round after this, as she’ll be trying to brave the possibility of split, twice in this block.

9/10: Akiyama Mio v Myoudouin Itsuki v Sekine v Aria

Well, Mio catches a break, and no killer opponents in her opening match. So, it’s cruise control here.

9/11: Hanato Kobato v Illyasviel Von Einzbern v Tsukihi Araragi v Makita Hime

Kobato impressed me in the Prelim round, and I have enough of that confidence in her to believe she’ll at win least this match.

9/12: Suminoe Ako v Shiina v Chou’un v Alisa Bannings

Easy match for Shiina to take.

9/04: Konoe Konoka v Tsukimura Suzuka v Yuuki Mikan v Konjiki no Yami

Even with the split vote, there’s no Hinagiku-level character to crush them at least in the first round. So yeah, Mikan will take one for the team. This match would’ve been Konoka’s if this was 2007, though.

9/05: Kinoshita Yuuko v Morishita Koyomi v Fate Testarossa v Saber

Looks like my prediction about Fate/Stay Night being wiped out in the second round is wrong… because they’re gonna be extinct after the first round. What a terrible fate it is, and reminds me of how Saber drew Suigintou in Round Two of 2006. History repeating itself, somewhat. Also, if it was Hideyoshi in there, instead of her sis, this would have been a very interesting match. Not that it ain’t already, but stil, you know the drill.

9/06: Natsume v Isara Gunther v Otonashi Hatsune v Sousou

Tough to call, both have mojo, but Natsume has a bit more strength thatn Hatsune. Calling the former to win this for now.

9/07: Saten Ruiko v Hisako v Sae v Winry Rockbell

Saten to cruise against three characters who had to grind throught the second prelims just to make it here.

9/08: Harukaze Chiharu v Kotegawa Yui v Ryuugu Rena v Kotobuki Tsumugi

In what could be the final match by Higurashi, Rena drew a tough upstart. And Kokegawa keeps lucking her way out, of the tournament,Ā  doesn’t she ;_; Anyway, Mugi is the huge favorite here, and weren’t it for Rena’s famous win back in 2008, then everyone would discount her easily in this match.

9/09: Sonogi Yukina v Etou Fujiko v Haruue Eri v Kirishima Shouko

Random god has been good for Shouko for a round, giving her a match against three 2nd prelim q’ers.

9/10: Hinamori Amu v Ushiromiya Jessica v Hanabishi Miki v Kazumiya Rio

Cool and spicy will have a hard tim replicating her Top16 last year, but it’s not too bad, when you’re not going out in the opening round.

9/11: Serizawa Fumino v Anzu v Kagura v Senou Natsuru

Continuing from her impressive run in the Prelim stages, it’s inevitable that Fumino will overrun this type of competition. Ask me the outcome of this match during the preaseason though, and I would’ve been skeptical.

9/12: Matsumoto Maya v Haibara Ai v Tsukabae Tomoe v Nori

Good to know that one of the Hidamari newcomers will at least be opening in the W column.

***

Whew. And that’s a wrap. All in all, this one has a great set of matches too. I haven’t compared it to the previous years, and I might as well do that soon. I wonder if there will be ones that will end up in the lore of greatest Saimoe matches? I certainly hope so.

Later I’ll just probably be housekeeping and add some new stuff to the site, but publication of the “newspaper” will be on break for a day. This looks like a double-issue, after all! /heh. Let’s just see what happens, and I can’t wait for Saimoe to finally begin with the elimination rounds.

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2 thoughts on “Building Blocks: Saimoe 2010 First Round Preview

  1. anonymous August 1, 2010 / 3:08 am

    I feel this will probably be the most competitive, shocking, and all around amazing Saimoe ever. I pray Hidamari, Working, Bakemonogatari and Kobato do well.

    This may seem random, but I always wanted to ask this; what do you envision these saimoe battle to be? Do you think they fight head to head, do you think they race or something else?

  2. kevo August 2, 2010 / 8:17 am

    Hear hear! With great new characters this year like Hitagi and Tenshi as well as legendary returners like Nanoha and Shana, there should be lots of great stories swirling around this Saimoe! I’m so giddy and excited for this to start!

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